President Bola Tinubu has assured Nigerians that the country’s struggling economy is on the path to recovery, declaring in his Independence Day speech that “the worst is over.” Tinubu defended his administration’s sweeping reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of Nigeria’s multiple exchange rates policies that initially sparked a surge in prices and hardship nationwide. He pointed to recent signs of improvement: GDP growth of 4.23% in the second quarter, inflation easing slightly to 20.12% in August, and crude oil output rising to 1.68 million barrels per day, the highest in nearly three years.
He also highlighted stronger foreign reserves at $42.03 billion, trade surpluses, and cash transfers to eight million vulnerable households, alongside new investments in infrastructure and energy. But critics argue that the recovery narrative is premature. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned that poverty and inflation remain severe, with over 129 million Nigerians still living below the poverty line. Questions have also been raised about the transparency of the government’s cash transfer scheme.
Labour unrest continues to intensify, most recently at the Dangote Oil Refinery, where a dispute led to 800 job losses and power disruptions. Opposition leader Peter Obi accused Tinubu of focusing on “political optics” rather than Nigeria’s deepening humanitarian crisis, insisting that government spending has failed to match the scale of the country’s social and economic challenges. For many Nigerians, daily hardships remain the true test of whether the president’s optimism reflects reality.
