Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says Ethiopia has “no intention of invading or attacking others” as his government presses for access to a seaport, a policy that is raising fresh tensions across the Horn of Africa. Speaking publicly, Abiy insisted Ethiopia would not violate the sovereignty of neighbors including Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti or Kenya. However, he stressed that Addis Ababa would continue to demand discussions on maritime access through negotiation and commercial arrangements. “We will not fire a single bullet,” he said, while warning that unresolved demands could carry uncertain consequences.
Ethiopia became landlocked in 1993 after Eritrea’s independence, losing direct access to the Red Sea, including the strategic port of Assab. Today, roughly 95 percent of Ethiopia’s imports and exports transit through Djibouti, at an estimated annual cost of $1.5 billion described as economically and strategically unsustainable for a country of nearly 130 million people. Abiy’s renewed focus on securing sovereign sea access has unsettled regional leaders. At a recent stadium event in southern Ethiopia, he presided over a large parade of special forces units. Observers interpreted the display and banners declaring Ethiopia would not remain landlocked “whether you like it or not” as a pointed message toward Eritrea.
Tensions with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki have resurfaced despite the 2018 peace deal that ended two decades of hostility and earned Abiy the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. The earlier border war formally concluded with the Algiers Agreement, but mistrust has lingered. Abiy also previously pursued a maritime agreement with Somaliland, a move that angered Somalia and briefly escalated diplomatic friction before tensions eased. The International Crisis Group has warned that increasingly sharp rhetoric and troop movements near shared borders risk miscalculation if not managed through diplomacy. For now, Abiy maintains that dialogue remains Ethiopia’s preferred path but his insistence on sea access continues to reshape regional geopolitics.
