South Sudan’s main opposition group, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), has descended into internal turmoil following the house arrest of its longtime leader Riek Machar, deepening concerns over the country’s already fragile peace process. On Wednesday, the SPLM-IO’s political wing appointed Stephen Kuol Par as interim party chairman, sparking a backlash from the movement’s armed wing, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), which remains largely loyal to Machar.
Par, who previously served as Minister for Peacebuilding in the unity government, was suspended from both his ministerial role and party membership shortly after his appointment, reflecting the deepening divisions. Key SPLM-IO figures aligned with Machar reportedly boycotted the meeting that confirmed Par’s nomination. Machar was placed under house arrest in late March following accusations by President Salva Kiir that he was behind a deadly flare-up of violence involving opposition fighters in Unity and Upper Nile states. Government forces claimed to have repelled the attack, but the incident has escalated tensions within the transitional unity government formed under the 2018 peace agreement.
Analysts warn the internal split within the SPLM-IO could unravel the delicate power-sharing deal that ended five years of civil war and led to the formation of a unity government in 2020. The peace accord, signed by Kiir and Machar, aimed to stabilize the world’s youngest nation, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011. Implementation of the peace deal has been slow, marred by persistent insecurity, economic hardship, and delayed reforms. South Sudan has yet to hold its first presidential election, and the transitional period has been extended four times, most recently until late 2024.
“This split within the SPLM-IO could tip South Sudan back into widespread violence,” said regional security analyst Paul Namurye. “If the armed wing fractures further or challenges the political leadership, it could dismantle what little cohesion remains in the opposition.”
International observers, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union, have urged restraint and dialogue to preserve the peace process. But amid deepening mistrust, economic instability, and localized fighting, fears are growing that South Sudan could once again spiral toward civil war.
