Leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have warned that Ethiopia may be preparing for a new military confrontation in the northern region of Tigray, raising fears that the fragile peace following the 2020–2022 civil war could collapse. Tigrayan officials say they have observed significant troop movements by the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) near several border areas surrounding the region. According to the rebels, the buildup of soldiers and military equipment suggests federal authorities may be preparing for another major offensive.
The warning comes just over two years after the devastating conflict between federal forces and the TPLF ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022. That war, which also involved troops from Eritrea and regional militias, is estimated to have killed at least 600,000 people and displaced millions, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in recent African history. Although the peace deal largely halted large-scale fighting, tensions have remained high. Sporadic clashes between federal and Tigrayan forces have been reported since late 2025, while disagreements over disarmament, territorial control and political representation continue to strain relations. The TPLF once dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades as the leading force in the ruling coalition before current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. His administration later fell out with the TPLF leadership, a rift that ultimately triggered the civil war.
Federal authorities have also accused Tigrayan leaders of strengthening ties with Eritrea, whose relationship with Addis Ababa has deteriorated again in recent months. Regional tensions have been further complicated by Ethiopia’s push for direct access to the Red Sea. As a landlocked country since Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia relies heavily on ports in Djibouti for most of its imports and exports. Officials in Asmara fear that Ethiopia could attempt to secure sea access by force, particularly through the Eritrean port of Assab. Security analysts warn that a renewed conflict involving Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea would risk destabilizing the wider Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with political instability, humanitarian crises and cross-border tensions.
