Somalia’s al-Qaida-linked militant group al-Shabab launched a coordinated and deadly assault on the strategic town of Adan Yabal in the Middle Shabelle region on Wednesday, highlighting growing concerns about the resilience of government gains in the ongoing counterinsurgency campaign. The pre-dawn attack began with a barrage of explosives, followed by a multi-pronged ground assault targeting Somali government positions. The town, located approximately 245 kilometers (152 miles) north of the capital, Mogadishu, serves as a key military hub in the fight against the extremist group.
Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the assault in a statement, asserting it had regained full control of the town. However, a Somali military officer speaking anonymously due to security protocols said government troops still held parts of Adan Yabal, and intense fighting was ongoing. The scale of the attack has raised questions about the sustainability of Somalia’s recent military momentum. Adan Yabal was previously under al-Shabab control from 2016 until government forces recaptured it in December 2022 during a major offensive.
Just weeks ago, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited the town, calling it a symbolic victory and vowing that “occasional losses do not mean we are losing the war.” His visit underscored the strategic importance of the town as a forward operating base for counterinsurgency operations in the region. Military sources reported significant casualties on both sides during Wednesday’s battle, though an exact death toll was not immediately available due to disrupted communication lines and ongoing clashes. In a related setback, Somali government forces and allied clan militias withdrew from the nearby village of Abooreey after 10 days of fierce fighting, paving the way for al-Shabab to capture the settlement, according to local residents and security officials.
These developments come amid mounting evidence that al-Shabab has been regrouping after suffering major territorial losses over the past two years. The Somali government, supported by clan militias, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, and U.S. air support, launched a sweeping offensive in 2022 that pushed the militants out of dozens of towns and villages in the central Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Southwest states.
Despite these gains, al-Shabab has retained influence in large swaths of the country’s rural south and central regions, including parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Bakool. The group has exploited the government’s limited ability to maintain security in retaken areas, using guerrilla tactics and propaganda to reassert its presence.
The group, which has been waging an insurgency for over 15 years to establish a strict form of Islamic rule, continues to carry out deadly attacks in urban centers. On March 18, a roadside bomb targeted the presidential convoy in Mogadishu, underlining the group’s enduring threat.
While the Somali government has repeatedly declared that al-Shabab is weakened and on the back foot, analysts warn that the insurgents’ ability to mount large-scale counterattacks and reclaim territory could undermine long-term stabilization efforts unless the government strengthens local security and governance structures in liberated areas.
